Net-Zero Not Yet in Sight After Conference of Climate Parties

Call it a Glasgow half empty. During a press conference previewing the COP26 summit, President Biden’s climate envoy, John Kerry, asserted, “It’s not inconsistent” for Biden to ask the 13-member OPEC cartel to boost oil production while asking other countries and companies to curb their oil consumption.

According to Kerry, Biden only wants OPEC “to boost production in this immediate moment,” not long term. The “temporary” boost will keep the economy moving and generate revenue to “help pay for the transition” to the administration’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

But it’s not just Biden’s OPEC plea that offends advocates demanding a swift end to oil and gas development. In a November statement published after the Bureau of Land Management announced new oil and gas leases on the federal lands of seven western states, environmental groups condemned what they regarded as “hypocritical” administration policies. WildEarth Guardians’ energy director, Jeremy Nichols, charged that Biden “is talking a good talk on climate action,” but, in reality, his administration “is actively working to fan the flames of the climate crisis by selling more public lands for fracking.”

Similarly, a group of scientists in a letter to Biden implored him to “end the fossil fuel era” and faulted eight specific administration policies as inconsistent with the urgency demanded by climate change’s “existential threat.”

Federal land oil and gas production accounts for only 6 percent of total domestic oil and 8 percent of total domestic gas. But critics say that amount adds to a growing climate crisis. In May the Paris-based International Energy Agency, once deemed a fossil fuel champion, issued a warning that achieving net-zero GHG emissions will require a rapid end to new oil and gas projects and no sales of new gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles after 2035. Under a net-zero pathway, “No new coal mines or mine extensions are required,” IEA added.

Although Glasgow host UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the new climate deal marked “the death knell for coal power,” the final COP26 text was amended to state that coal power would be phased “down,” not “out,” as originally proposed. Disappointed critics said the deal won’t limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by century’s end, thus pushing the world into the “disastrous” climate change zone.

Under COP26, by the end of 2022 countries will republish climate plans that set more “ambitious” goals. But as of now, emission reduction targets set by industrialized nations after the 2015 Paris climate accords were still not being met, and even if they were fully met, says IEA, it wouldn’t be enough to achieve net-zero by 2050.

Calls for aggressive policies notwithstanding, Big Oil sees a robust petroleum future. According to a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, “Credible studies from all sides affirm that natural gas and oil will continue to play a significant role in powering the global economy for decades to come as we work toward a lower-carbon future.” That being the case, “We should be focused on encouraging, not hindering, American energy development,” the spokesman says, and should look to U.S. producers, not OPEC, to meet growing domestic demand for “affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy.”

Biden deserves credit for trying to advance a net-zero transition in the face of extraordinarily difficult political challenges. The $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure legislation Biden signed into law is “a critical step” toward net-zero, the president said in a statement declaring that a renewed American leadership in Glasgow “raises the ambition” for the United States to tackle the climate crisis.

Among its miscellaneous climate- and clean energy-related features, the law contains billions of dollars for flood mitigation and coastal restoration, for modernizing the electric grid, for zero- and low-emission buses and ferries, as well as electric school buses, and $7.5 billion for building a nationwide network of plug-in electric vehicle chargers.

Biden also deserves credit for advancing the Build Back Better Act, which at press time was pending in Congress. In a post-Glasgow dear colleague letter Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer of New York described the bill as “the cornerstone” of America’s renewed climate leadership that Biden touted. The proposal to spend $1.75 trillion over 10 years on Democratic priorities, including $500 billion fighting climate change, was scaled back from a $3.75 trillion initial bid, and its key program aimed at replacing coal- and gas-fired power plants with wind, solar, and nuclear energy, was also dropped.

Clearly, it’s a long road to net-zero.